MSFT remains range-bound despite strong cloud growth, with 4Q FY2026 Azure guidance of 40% YoY growth despite a high YoY basis in 4Q FY2025. $190 billion in capex in CY2026 is necessary, given that two-thirds of the spending is tied to short-lived assets such as CPUs and GPUs, which depreciate quickly. Even with elevated capex, the company is still expected to generate positive FCF in FY2026.